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idk, the lands of what are now Afghanistan have traded hands many times over the millennia. I'd be shocked it China, India, or Pakistan didn't try to encroach on that territory in the near future.
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China has a long history of radical swings, largely based on Emperors. I'm not sure we have enough data to say if that has continued with CCP leaders, but when Xi Jinping steps down for whatever reason, I'd guess all bets are off.
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wouldn't be surprised if there's a revolt in the west of the country, but I don't think we'll see Roman-style civil war. A lot of that land in the west is disputed. The most likely scenario for Chinese involvement would be a Crimea-type seizure of the Wakhan Corridor Nature Refuge. Taking something like Tajikistan, or parts of it along with that would produce fewer headlines in…
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Issyk Kul is bigger, but Karakul Lake is closer to China and much closer to disputed territories. The disputed territories in the west are already domestic and foreign issues. I highly doubt China is going to take Kabul, but if you look at a map of Afghanistan, you'll see why the Wakhan corridor shouldn't likely be a hard get. China's west needs water. That part of Afghanistan …
Douglas A. Whitfield
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