wouldn't be surprised if there's a revolt in the west of the country, but I don't think we'll see Roman-style civil war.

A lot of that land in the west is disputed. The most likely scenario for Chinese involvement would be a Crimea-type seizure of the Wakhan Corridor Nature Refuge. Taking something like Tajikistan, or parts of it along with that would produce fewer headlines internationally.

If China cares about its west, then taking Issyk Kul would be strategic, but that would be a pretty big shift in priorities.