“NBC News Exit Poll: Most states show decline in first-time voters from Super Tuesday 2016

Across seven states conducting presidential primaries on Tuesday that held contests on Super Tuesday four years ago, there’s a dip on average in the share of voters participating in their first presidential primary, results from the NBC News Exit Poll show. That’s dispiriting news for Democrats, who are hoping for a surge of new voters to help power the party to victory in November.

The seven states — Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Vermont — all held Super Tuesday presidential primaries on March 1, 2016. The Democratic nomination contest then, as now, featured a spirited competition between well-known candidates.

The share of first-time primary voters is down in five of the states (Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia and Vermont), up in Tennessee and flat in Massachusetts. Averaged across the seven states, first-time voters are 15 percent of the electorate in 2020, down from 17 percent in 2016.”