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Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
Last updated: January 29, 2020, 17:55 UTC

Coronavirus Cases:

6,171

Deaths:

133

Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country

(Affecting 20 countries and territories)
Country Cases Deaths Region
China
 6,070 133
Asia
Thailand
 14 0
Asia
Hong Kong
 11 0
Asia
Taiwan
 8 0
Asia
Macau
 7 0
Asia
Malaysia
 7 0
Asia
Singapore
 10 0
Asia
Japan
 7 0
Asia
Australia
 7 0
Oceania
5 0
America
South Korea
 4 0
Asia
France
 4 0
Europe
Germany
 4 0
Europe
Canada
 3 0
America
Vietnam
 2 0
Asia
Cambodia
 1 0
Asia
Nepal
 1 0
Asia
United Arab Emirates 4 0
Middle East
Finland
 1 0
Europe
Sri Lanka
 1 0
Asia
Last updated: January 29, 2020, 17:55 UTC
Transmission Rate (Ro)
(Estimated for 2019-nCoV [5][6])
2.0 - 3.1
Fatality Rate (CFR)
(Estimated for 2019-nCoV[9])
3%
Incubation Period
(Estimated for 2019-nCoV [10][11])
10 - 14 days
COUNTRIES and TERRITORIES
(Affected by 2019-nCoV)
20

Quick Facts :

  • The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV, or Wuhan coronavirus) has spread to 20 countries and territories worldwide, with 6,171 confirmed cases and 133 deaths as of January 29, 2020.
  • In the United States, there are 5 cases confirmed by the CDC: 1 in Arizona, 2 in California, 1 in Washington state, and 1 in Illinois. More info.
  • Wuhan (the city where the virus originated) is the largest city in Central China, with a population of over 11 million people. The city, On January 23, shut down transport links. Following Wuhan lockdown, the city of Huanggang was also placed in quarantine, and the city of Ezhou has closed its train stations. This means than 18 million people have been placed in isolation. The World Health Organization said cutting off a city as large as Wuhan is "unprecedented in public health history."[12]
  • Germany, Japan and Taiwan have reported the first cases in patients who didn't’t personally visit China, but contracted the virus from someone else who had visited Wuhan, China.

A pathogen’s harmfulness is determined by the combination of Ro (reproductive number) and the case fatality rate.

How contagious is coronavirus? (Reproductive Number (Ro) of 2019-nCoV)

The novel coronavirus' reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which measures how rapidly a disease spreads, is estimated between 2.0 and 3.1, according to preliminary studies [5][6]. Another study provided a similar estimate of 2.6 with an uncertainty range of: 1.5-3.5[7]. The WHO noted on January 23 that human-to-human transmission was occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5[13].

For comparison, the RO for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Ro represents the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person, so if R0 for coronavirus is 3.8, it means that on average every case of Wuhan coronavirus would create between 2 and 3 new cases.

Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of 2019-nCoV

The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 3%[9] (between 2% and 4%).

For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases)[7].Fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)

The Wuhan novel coronavirus appears to be contagious before symptoms appear, as it is estimated to have an incubation period of 10 to 14 days, according to Ma Xiaowei, the director of China’s National Health Commission[11].

The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for 2019-nCoV to be between 2 and 14 days [10].

This means that symptoms of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14, during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom.

WHO Risk Assessment

China: Very High
Region: High
Global: High

Not a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)

The WHO hasn't declared the outbreak an international health emergency. The WHO emergency committee has convened twice [13] (on January 22, and January 23) and has twice declined to make such a declaration.

Comparisons:

  • Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
  • SARS (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths (with a fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on Janaury 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
  • MERS (2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (with a fatality rate of 34.4%).

More info

Sources

  1. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
  2. 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
  3. Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
  4. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Health
  5. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction - Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
  6. Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
  7. Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌
  8. Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24, 2013
  9. A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet. January 24, 2020
  10. Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - CDC
  11. China's National Health Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera. January 26, 2020
  12. Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China - Reuters. January 23, 2020
  13. Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January 23, 2020